With September and October marking the historical peak of hurricane season, here is a quick, data-based update for anyone in northern Palm Beach County.
Where the 2026 Atlantic Season Stands
- NOAA is forecasting a below-normal season: 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes for the full June through November season. NOAA puts the odds at 75% below normal, 20% near normal and just 5% above normal.
- Colorado State University’s independent forecast agrees, projecting overall storm energy at roughly 40 to 45% of the long-term average.
- The main driver is a strengthening El Niño, which increases wind shear across the Atlantic and tends to suppress storm formation and intensification.
- Two storms have already formed this season (Arthur and Bertha), and we are heading into the stretch when activity historically picks up fastest.
Bottom Line
The numbers point to a calmer season than average, and early September through October is still the time to stay alert. Even in a quiet year, it only takes one storm nearby to matter.
Resources to Track Storms Yourself
- National Hurricane Center
- NOAA’s National Storm Surge Risk Maps (search “NOAA National Storm Surge Risk Maps”)
If you have questions about your property’s flood zone, insurance exposure or general storm prep, call (561) 632-7705 or email slevine@ipre.com. I am happy to help however I can.
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